Monday, November 28, 2016

2017 Upper Cook Inlet Late Run Sockeye Salmon Forecast

ADF&G has released its 2017 Upper Cook Inlet late run (July) sockeye salmon forecast and if you're a commercial fisherman you hope the same people who came up with these numbers are the same people who forecasted the 2016 presidential election. The total run forecast calls for 4 million sockeye salmon with a commercial harvest of 1.7 million. The commercial harvest is 1.2 million less than the 20 year average harvest. Ouch, definitely a subpar forecast.
That being said, the Kenai River sockeye salmon optimum escapement goal (OEG) has not changed. ADF&G manages the late run in river goal to fall within 700,000-1,400,000 fish. My forecast is that fishing will be similar to last year. Timing and location will deterermine your success rate. In other words, some fisherman will do fine, others will struggle. That kinda sounds like the text book definition of fishing, doesn't it?

Beaver Creek Cabins & Guide Service


Anonymous said...

So what you're saying is the commercial fishermans cut will be lower but the sportfisherman should see the same amount of fish in the river.

Beaver Creek Cabins & Guide Service said...

Exactly. If there aren't enough spawners, there won't be a future.

George French said...

Wow. Two photos from 2012! I'm four years older but thankfully 15 lbs lighter!